Early warning of liquidity vulnerability in Ecuadorian savings and credit cooperatives through a conditional logit model (2021–2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37431/conectividad.v7i2.488Keywords:
Early warning, Liquidity vulnerability, Savings and credit cooperatives, Liquidity coverage, Conditional logitAbstract
To identify the microeconomic determinants of liquidity vulnerability in Ecuadorian credit unions (COAC) of Segments 1 and 2 during 2021–2025. A Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) proxy is built from the chart of accounts of the Superintendency of Popular and Solidarity Economy (SEPS), and a conditional logit with entity fixed effects is estimated on an unbalanced panel of 490 cooperative-year observations. Return on assets and financial intermediation are the most robust determinants: the former reduces the probability of vulnerability (p < 0.001) while the latter increases it (p < 0.001), with stability under both exact estimation and Breslow approximation with clustered standard errors. Non-performing loans show a negative coefficient that persists in lagged specifications, a result warranting cautious interpretation. Neither institutional size nor capital adequacy reach statistical significance. The findings offer quantitative evidence for the design of segment-differentiated early warning indicators, with profitability and financial intermediation as priority signals.
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